How long a task can AI finish on its own?

State-of-the-art models (50% reliability) Provisional, above 16 hoursTrend fitted to these points: doubling every ≈6.2 months (METR's own estimates: ≈6.2 months since 2019, ≈4.2 since 2023)

ModelsGPT-23sdavinci-0029sGPT-3.5 Turbo Instruct36sGPT-44mGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023)4mGPT-4o7mClaude 3.5 Sonnet11mo1-preview20mClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024)21mo139mClaude 3.7 Sonnet1ho32hGPT-53.4hGemini 3 Pro3.7hClaude Opus 4.54.9hGPT-5.25.9hClaude Opus 4.612hClaude Mythos Preview17h*

Source: METR Time Horizon 1.1 (p50, frontier models); estimates above 16 hours are provisional and the forward trend is illustrative · data updated Oct 2, 2026howfastis.ai ↗