Prediction ledger · Adoption
Bill Gates
Co-founder, Microsoft · Nov 9, 2023
“In the next five years, this will change completely. You won't have to use different apps for different tasks. You'll simply tell your device, in everyday language, what you want to do.”
In short: Within five years, people would stop juggling apps and simply tell an AI agent, in everyday language, what they want done.
- Verdict
- Still openNot yet due
- Said
- Nov 9, 2023
- Date it named
- Nov 9, 2028
- Due in about 25 months
What happened
Not yet due. Assistant and agent products multiplied after 2023, but not yet the everyday replacement for apps he described.
How it's judged
Agents that act across apps for ordinary users, widely available, by November 2028.
The lesson
Diffusion takes time. Is AI showing up in work yet, by country? · Why weak links slow adoption
More adoption predictions
Elon Musk
CEO, Tesla · Apr 22, 2019
“…next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road. The fleet wakes up with an over the air update; that's all it takes.”
No Tesla robotaxi service ran in 2020. Paid rides began in Austin in June 2025 with safety monitors on board, and by mid-2026 the driverless fleet was about 20 cars.
Due Dec 2020Adoption
Dario Amodei
CEO, Anthropic · Mar 10, 2025
“I think we will be there in three to six months, where AI is writing 90% of the code. And then, in 12 months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code.”
Six months on, there was no sign of AI writing 90% of code across the software industry. Measuring who writes code is hard, and a narrow reading (code at AI labs) would score differently.
Due Sep 2025Adoption
Sam Altman
CEO, OpenAI · Jan 5, 2025
“We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents 'join the workforce' and materially change the output of companies.”
Coding agents spread fast in 2025 and some firms rebuilt workflows around them. Evidence that agents materially changed company output at scale stayed thin, and "may" leaves room either way.
Due Dec 2025Adoption