Prediction ledger · Economy

Daron Acemoglu

Economist, MIT · 2024

“…these macroeconomic effects appear nontrivial but modest—no more than a 0.66% increase in total factor productivity (TFP) over 10 years.”

In short: AI will add at most about 0.66% to US total factor productivity over ten years, and probably under 0.53%.

What happened

Not yet due. Productivity statistics can't yet separate AI's contribution from everything else.

Published estimates of AI's contribution to US productivity over 2024 to 2034. A cumulative gain well above 1% would make this too slow.

Goldman Sachs Research

Economists Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani · 2023

“…they could drive a 7% (or almost $7 trillion) increase in global GDP and lift productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points over a 10-year period.”

Not yet due. Note that exposure is not loss: the 300 million figure counts jobs with tasks AI could do, not jobs that will disappear.

Due Dec 2033Economy