Prediction ledger · Economy

Goldman Sachs Research

Economists Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani · 2023

“…they could drive a 7% (or almost $7 trillion) increase in global GDP and lift productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points over a 10-year period.”

In their words. Source: goldmansachs.com

In short: Generative AI could raise global GDP by about 7% over ten years, and expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation.

Verdict: Still openNot yet due
Said: 2023
Date it named: Dec 31, 2033; Due in about 87 months

What happened

Not yet due. Note that exposure is not loss: the 300 million figure counts jobs with tasks AI could do, not jobs that will disappear.

How it's judged

Credible estimates of generative AI's cumulative contribution to global GDP about ten years after widespread adoption. Goldman's clock starts at widespread adoption, so the date is approximate.

The lesson

Exposure is not replacement. Productivity and jobs across eight economies · The weak-link growth forecast

More economy predictions

Daron Acemoglu

Economist, MIT · 2024

Still open

“…these macroeconomic effects appear nontrivial but modest—no more than a 0.66% increase in total factor productivity (TFP) over 10 years.”

Not yet due. Productivity statistics can't yet separate AI's contribution from everything else.

Due Dec 2034Economy