Prediction ledger · Economy
Goldman Sachs Research
Economists Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani · 2023
“…they could drive a 7% (or almost $7 trillion) increase in global GDP and lift productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points over a 10-year period.”
In short: Generative AI could raise global GDP by about 7% over ten years, and expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation.
- Verdict
- Still openNot yet due
- Said
- 2023
- Date it named
- Dec 31, 2033
- Due in about 87 months
What happened
Not yet due. Note that exposure is not loss: the 300 million figure counts jobs with tasks AI could do, not jobs that will disappear.
How it's judged
Credible estimates of generative AI's cumulative contribution to global GDP about ten years after widespread adoption. Goldman's clock starts at widespread adoption, so the date is approximate.
The lesson
Exposure is not replacement. Productivity and jobs across eight economies · The weak-link growth forecast