Prediction ledger · Capability
Daniel Kokotajlo and co-authors
AI Futures Project, the AI 2027 scenario · Apr 3, 2025
“…a superhuman coder (SC): an AI system that can do any coding tasks that the best AGI company engineer does, while being much faster and cheaper.”
In short: A superhuman coder arrives inside a leading AI company in early 2027.
- Verdict
- Still openNot yet due
- Said
- Apr 3, 2025
- Date it named
- Mar 31, 2027
- Due in about 6 months
What happened
Not yet due.
How it's judged
A system matching the best engineers at an AI company on essentially any coding task, faster and cheaper, by about March 2027. The authors presented a scenario with wide uncertainty, not a point forecast.
The lesson
Horizon is the crux. When can AI do a task as long as yours? · How fast the same intelligence gets cheaper
More capability predictions
Mark Zuckerberg
CEO, Meta · Jan 10, 2025
In 2025, Meta and other companies would probably have an AI that can effectively work as a midlevel engineer who writes code (paraphrased from the Joe Rogan Experience #2255).
Coding agents took on more routine engineering work, but Meta's next step was to set targets for how much code its engineers produce with AI, not to replace midlevel engineers.
Due Dec 2025Capability
Ray Kurzweil
Futurist and author · 2002
A machine will pass a rigorous Turing test by 2029. He staked $20,000 on it against Mitch Kapor in a formal Long Bet, and restated the date in 2024.
Not yet due. The bet's long, formal interviews have not been held.
Due Dec 2029Capability
Jensen Huang
CEO, Nvidia · Mar 19, 2024
“If we specified AGI to be something very specific, a set of tests where a software program can do very well — or maybe 8% better than most people — I believe we will get there within 5 years.”
Not yet due. With a test-based definition, much depends on which tests count.
Due Mar 2029Capability