Prediction ledger · Capability
Jensen Huang
CEO, Nvidia · Mar 19, 2024
“If we specified AGI to be something very specific, a set of tests where a software program can do very well — or maybe 8% better than most people — I believe we will get there within 5 years.”
In short: If AGI means doing better than most people on a specific set of tests, AI will get there within five years.
- Verdict
- Still openNot yet due
- Said
- Mar 19, 2024
- Date it named
- Mar 19, 2029
- Due in about 30 months
What happened
Not yet due. With a test-based definition, much depends on which tests count.
How it's judged
His own condition: tests such as a bar exam, logic tests, economics tests, or a pre-med exam, on which AI does about 8% better than most people.
The lesson
Definitions decide. When can AI do a task as long as yours? · How fast the same intelligence gets cheaper
More capability predictions
Mark Zuckerberg
CEO, Meta · Jan 10, 2025
In 2025, Meta and other companies would probably have an AI that can effectively work as a midlevel engineer who writes code (paraphrased from the Joe Rogan Experience #2255).
Coding agents took on more routine engineering work, but Meta's next step was to set targets for how much code its engineers produce with AI, not to replace midlevel engineers.
Due Dec 2025Capability
Ray Kurzweil
Futurist and author · 2002
A machine will pass a rigorous Turing test by 2029. He staked $20,000 on it against Mitch Kapor in a formal Long Bet, and restated the date in 2024.
Not yet due. The bet's long, formal interviews have not been held.
Due Dec 2029Capability
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Former OpenAI researcher, author of Situational Awareness · 2024
“AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible.”
Not yet due.
Due Dec 2027Capability