Prediction ledger · Capability
Go and AI experts
The consensus before AlphaGo, as described by Google DeepMind · 2015
A computer would need at least another ten years to beat one of the world's elite Go professionals.
- Verdict
- Too slowThe change came sooner than expected
- Said
- 2015
- Date it named
- Dec 31, 2025
- Actually happened
- Mar 15, 2016
What happened
AlphaGo beat European champion Fan Hui in October 2015, then Lee Sedol, one of the world's best, 4 to 1 in March 2016: about a decade early.
How it's judged
A program beats a top professional in an even match.
The lesson
Capability can arrive early. When can AI do a task as long as yours? · How fast the same intelligence gets cheaper
More capability predictions
Mark Zuckerberg
CEO, Meta · Jan 10, 2025
In 2025, Meta and other companies would probably have an AI that can effectively work as a midlevel engineer who writes code (paraphrased from the Joe Rogan Experience #2255).
Coding agents took on more routine engineering work, but Meta's next step was to set targets for how much code its engineers produce with AI, not to replace midlevel engineers.
Due Dec 2025Capability
Ray Kurzweil
Futurist and author · 2002
A machine will pass a rigorous Turing test by 2029. He staked $20,000 on it against Mitch Kapor in a formal Long Bet, and restated the date in 2024.
Not yet due. The bet's long, formal interviews have not been held.
Due Dec 2029Capability
Jensen Huang
CEO, Nvidia · Mar 19, 2024
“If we specified AGI to be something very specific, a set of tests where a software program can do very well — or maybe 8% better than most people — I believe we will get there within 5 years.”
Not yet due. With a test-based definition, much depends on which tests count.
Due Mar 2029Capability