Prediction ledger · Capability
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Former OpenAI researcher, author of Situational Awareness · 2024
“AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible.”
In short: Artificial general intelligence by 2027 is strikingly plausible.
- Verdict
- Still openNot yet due
- Said
- 2024
- Date it named
- Dec 31, 2027
- Due in about 15 months
What happened
Not yet due.
How it's judged
Hedged ("strikingly plausible") and AGI is loosely defined, so we will record whether there is broad agreement that AGI arrived by the end of 2027.
The lesson
Horizon is the crux. When can AI do a task as long as yours? · How fast the same intelligence gets cheaper
More capability predictions
Mark Zuckerberg
CEO, Meta · Jan 10, 2025
In 2025, Meta and other companies would probably have an AI that can effectively work as a midlevel engineer who writes code (paraphrased from the Joe Rogan Experience #2255).
Coding agents took on more routine engineering work, but Meta's next step was to set targets for how much code its engineers produce with AI, not to replace midlevel engineers.
Due Dec 2025Capability
Ray Kurzweil
Futurist and author · 2002
A machine will pass a rigorous Turing test by 2029. He staked $20,000 on it against Mitch Kapor in a formal Long Bet, and restated the date in 2024.
Not yet due. The bet's long, formal interviews have not been held.
Due Dec 2029Capability
Jensen Huang
CEO, Nvidia · Mar 19, 2024
“If we specified AGI to be something very specific, a set of tests where a software program can do very well — or maybe 8% better than most people — I believe we will get there within 5 years.”
Not yet due. With a test-based definition, much depends on which tests count.
Due Mar 2029Capability