Prediction ledger · Capability
Domain experts and superforecasters
Forecasting Research Institute, Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament · 2022
The median expert expected AI to reach gold-medal level at the International Mathematical Olympiad around 2030; the median superforecaster, around 2035.
- Verdict
- Too slowThe change came sooner than expected
- Said
- 2022
- Date it named
- Dec 31, 2030
- Actually happened
- Jul 21, 2025
What happened
AI systems reached gold-medal level at the July 2025 Olympiad, five years before the median expert forecast and ten before the median superforecaster's. FRI finds forecasters have repeatedly underestimated progress on benchmarks.
How it's judged
An AI system performs at IMO gold-medal level.
The lesson
Capability can arrive early. When can AI do a task as long as yours? · How fast the same intelligence gets cheaper
More capability predictions
Mark Zuckerberg
CEO, Meta · Jan 10, 2025
In 2025, Meta and other companies would probably have an AI that can effectively work as a midlevel engineer who writes code (paraphrased from the Joe Rogan Experience #2255).
Coding agents took on more routine engineering work, but Meta's next step was to set targets for how much code its engineers produce with AI, not to replace midlevel engineers.
Due Dec 2025Capability
Ray Kurzweil
Futurist and author · 2002
A machine will pass a rigorous Turing test by 2029. He staked $20,000 on it against Mitch Kapor in a formal Long Bet, and restated the date in 2024.
Not yet due. The bet's long, formal interviews have not been held.
Due Dec 2029Capability
Jensen Huang
CEO, Nvidia · Mar 19, 2024
“If we specified AGI to be something very specific, a set of tests where a software program can do very well — or maybe 8% better than most people — I believe we will get there within 5 years.”
Not yet due. With a test-based definition, much depends on which tests count.
Due Mar 2029Capability