Prediction ledger · Jobs
Geoffrey Hinton
AI researcher, University of Toronto and Google · 2016
“They should stop training radiologists now.”
In short: Deep learning would do better than radiologists within about five years, so training new ones was a waste.
- Verdict
- Too fastExpected the change sooner than it came
- Said
- 2016
- Date it named
- Dec 31, 2021
What happened
Radiologists are still trained and hired. AI now helps read scans, yet Mayo Clinic's radiology staff alone grew 55% after 2016, to more than 400. Consults, hard cases, and sign-off stayed human.
How it's judged
Judged on the advice: did demand for radiologists fall enough that training them was a mistake? He told The New Yorker in 2017 it "might be ten years", so we also check at ten.
The lesson
Weak links. Your job, task by task · Job postings in AI-exposed work