Prediction ledger · Jobs

Arvind Krishna

CEO, IBM · May 1, 2023

“I could easily see 30 percent of that getting replaced by AI and automation over a five-year period.”

In short: About 30% of IBM's roughly 26,000 back-office roles, some 7,800 jobs, could be replaced by AI and automation within five years.

Verdict: Still openNot yet due
Said: May 1, 2023
Date it named: May 1, 2028; Due in about 19 months

What happened

Not yet due.

How it's judged

IBM's own disclosures: roughly 7,800 back-office roles replaced by AI and automation by May 2028.

The lesson

Tasks, not jobs. Your job, task by task · Job postings in AI-exposed work

More jobs predictions

Geoffrey Hinton

AI researcher, University of Toronto and Google · 2016

Too fast

“They should stop training radiologists now.”

Radiologists are still trained and hired. AI now helps read scans, yet Mayo Clinic's radiology staff alone grew 55% after 2016, to more than 400. Consults, hard cases, and sign-off stayed human.

Due Dec 2021Jobs