Work · United States · updated Oct 2, 2026
United States: is AI showing up in jobs?
Unemployment is 4.2% (Sep 2026); job postings in AI-exposed work are down 38.7% since ChatGPT launched, versus down 29.4% for hands-on work.
Unemployment, Sep 2026
4.2%
up 0.6 pt since Nov 2022
Youth unemployment (ages 16–24), Sep 2026
9.9%
up 1.8 pt since Nov 2022
Firms using AI, 2021
5.7%
Latest survey is old; treat with care
AI usage per working-age person
3.9×
Claude usage relative to population share (1.0× = proportional); 41% of it is work
Job postings by AI exposure
Indeed postings, November 2022 = 100.
Biggest moves since ChatGPT
Last 28 days versus November 2022, by category.
Fell most
- Data & Analyticsexposed-56.8%
- Childcarehands-on-48.5%
- Software Developmentexposed-47.9%
- Accountingexposed-47.4%
- IT Systems & Solutionsexposed-45.5%
Held up best
- Therapyhands-on-1.1%
- Personal Care & Home Healthhands-on-14.4%
- Insuranceexposed-19.1%
- Legalexposed-23.1%
- Installation & Maintenancehands-on-27.1%
Source: Indeed Hiring Lab (CC BY 4.0). Groups average equally weighted categories; see how the groups are built. Hiring cycles and interest rates move these too. · Indeed Hiring Lab job postings tracker
Unemployment, overall and young people
Young workers are hit first in any slowdown, so a rise here alone does not point to AI. US youth rate covers ages 16–24; other countries use 15–24.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, seasonally adjusted. · US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labor's share of income
Nonfarm business sector, index 2017 = 100.
What the forecast scenarios say
In the Jones & Tonetti baseline, labor's share stays roughly flat. Under full automation, capital's share climbs toward 100%; under incomplete automation, the remaining human tasks become so valuable that labor's share rises.
So far the US labor share has drifted down for decades, a trend that predates generative AI. A sharp break from it would be a signal worth watching. See the scenarios.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, labor share, nonfarm business sector. · US Bureau of Labor Statistics
What the careful studies find
Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of AI
Brynjolfsson, Chandar & Chen (2025)
Using ADP payroll records, early-career workers (ages 22–25) in the most AI-exposed occupations saw about a 13% relative decline in employment since late 2022, while older workers in the same jobs held steady. Firms adjusted through hiring, not pay.
Evaluating the Impact of AI on the Labor Market: Current State of Affairs
The Budget Lab at Yale (2025, updated monthly)
No discernible disruption to the broader labor market since ChatGPT's release: the mix of occupations is shifting at about the pace of earlier technology waves, and exposure measures do not yet predict who loses work.
Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure
Gmyrek et al., ILO Working Paper 140 (2025)
About one in four workers worldwide is in an occupation with some exposure to generative AI, and 3.3% are in the most exposed group. Exposure covers 34% of jobs in high-income countries versus 11% in low-income ones. The likeliest effect is changing jobs, not eliminating them.
Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work
Cazzaniga et al., IMF Staff Discussion Note (2024)
Almost 40% of global employment is exposed to AI, rising to about 60% in advanced economies. Roughly half of exposed jobs may gain from AI; for the other half, AI may take over key tasks and lower demand for labor.
Other economies: United Kingdom · Germany · France · Canada · Japan · European Union (27) · OECD average